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What We Think Happens Next

Our forecast for South African OHS: psychosocial risk as a named duty, on the spot penalties, construction first, and management systems reaching small employers.
June 23, 2026 by

This article is forward-looking. Everything below the facts is GRC Shop opinion, not law. We separate the two deliberately.

In brief

The direction of travel is clear even where the detail is not. We expect psychosocial risk to become a named South African compliance theme, administrative penalties to change behaviour faster than prosecutions ever did, construction to tighten first, and the management system expectation to reach even small employers.

The facts this forecast rests on

  • The COIDA amendments are in force and add a rehabilitation duty and direct inspector enforcement. [1][2]
  • The inspectorate is set to expand roughly tenfold, with billions in funding. [3][4]
  • Commentary points to OHS reform requiring an evidence-based management system and direct administrative penalties. [5]
  • The Draft Construction Regulations 2024 await final gazette. [6]
  • The ISO 45001 revision is expected in 2027 with a psychosocial and climate focus, and the Draft International Standard ballot opened on 16 Jun 2026 and closes on 08 Sep 2026, which fixes the direction of travel. [7][8][12]
  • The United Kingdom HSE, the European Union and the ILO are all elevating psychosocial risk and mental health, and the HSE has moved from guidance to enforcement, issuing a Notice of Contravention to the University of Birmingham in Dec 2025 over work-related stress. [9][10][11][13]

GRC Shop view: our predictions

Psychosocial risk becomes a named compliance item in South Africa. International regulators already treat workplace stress and burnout as enforceable, and the ISO 45001 revision will hardwire it. We expect South African guidance and eventually regulation to follow, so employers should start documenting psychosocial risk in their risk assessments now rather than later.

Administrative penalties change behaviour faster than prosecutions. On-the-spot fines remove the slow court route that many small employers quietly relied on. We expect a sharp rise in employers seeking provable, dated compliance records within 12 to 24 months.

Construction tightens first. The draft Construction Regulations and the SACPCMP registration regime mean construction clients will feel changed appointment and competence requirements before other sectors do.

The management system expectation reaches small employers. The conference theme of prevention in practice, plus the inspectorate expansion, means even small businesses will be asked to show a system, not a policy. This favours tools that produce living evidence.

Cross-border standardisation pulls South Africa along. As ISO 45001:2027, the European Union and the ILO converge on psychosocial, climate and digitalisation, South African suppliers to multinationals will face these expectations through contracts well before local law catches up.

Confidence and caveats

These are reasoned predictions, not certainties. Draft instruments can change materially or stall. We will update this article as each item is published, and mark where a prediction was confirmed or missed.

Abbreviations

  • COIDA: Compensation for Occupational Injuries and Diseases Act
  • EU: European Union
  • HSE: Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)
  • ILO: International Labour Organisation
  • ISO: International Organisation for Standardisation
  • OHS: Occupational Health and Safety
  • SACPCMP: South African Council for the Project and Construction Management Professions
  • SME: small and medium enterprise

References

The sources below are external links to third-party websites. We link only to publicly accessible pages and check periodically that the links still work.

[1] Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr, "COIDA Amendments now in force: A new era for workplace injury compensation", 12 Mar 2026. https://www.cliffedekkerhofmeyr.com/en/news/publications/2026/South-Africa/Employment-Law/employment-law-alert-12-march-2026-coida-amendments-now-in-force-a-new-era-for-workplace-injury-compensation-in-south-africa

[2] Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr, "New COIDA Regulations now published: Rehabilitation Framework takes shape", 12 Mar 2026. https://www.cliffedekkerhofmeyr.com/en/news/publications/2026/South-Africa/Employment-Law/employment-law-alert-12-march-new-coida-regulations-now-published-rehabilitation-framework-takes-shape

[3] TimesLive, "Labour inspectorate: Plan is to grow team from 2,000 to 20,000", 02 Oct 2024. https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2024-10-02-labour-inspectorate-plan-is-to-grow-team-from-2000-to-20000/

[4] Xinhua, "South Africa to recruit 20,000 inspectors to crack down on non-compliance", 11 Feb 2025. https://english.news.cn/20250211/83c20213a48745719e5ef459b638f96c/c.html

[5] ComplianceHub, "OHS Law in 2026: The End of Paper Safety", 2026. https://www.compliancehub.co.za/post/ohs-law-in-2026-the-end-of-paper-safety

[6] ENSafrica, "OHASA: Public Comments on the Draft Construction Regulations 2024", Mar 2025. https://www.ensafrica.com/news/detail/9938/south-africa-occupational-health-and-safety-a

[7] Smithers, "ISO 45001 News: Preparing for the Possible 2027 Standard Revision", Jun 2026. https://www.smithers.com/resources/2026/june/iso-45001-news-possible-2027-standard-revision

[8] DQS, "Revision of ISO 45001: What will change with ISO 45001:2027", 2026. https://www.dqsglobal.com/en/explore/blog/iso-45001-revision

[9] DAC Beachcroft, "HSE Annual Statistics and Report 2025: Trends and Strategic Priorities for 2026", 2026. https://www.dacbeachcroft.com/en/What-we-think/HSE-Annual-Statistics-and-Report-2025-Trends-and-Strategic-Priorities-for-2026

[10] UNRIC, "Occupational disease prevention, mental health, AI and climate change should shape future EU agenda on safety and health at work", 2025. https://unric.org/en/occupational-safety-health-eu-priorities/

[11] International Labour Organization, "The ILO Global Strategy on Occupational Safety and Health and its Plan of Action", Jan 2025. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2025-01/OSH_Globaly_Strategy_r6.pdf

[12] LRQA, "ISO 45001 revision update: DIS ballot now open", Jun 2026. https://www.lrqa.com/en-au/latest-news/iso-45001-revision-update-dis-ballot-now-open/

[13] Times Higher Education, "Birmingham reprimanded over its management of work-related stress", Dec 2025. https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/birmingham-reprimanded-over-its-management-work-related-stress

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